« Regulation for Revenue | Main | Ron Burgundy’s Legend Lives On »
February 27, 2006
America in the midst of a transit revival?
Articles like this one might give that impression.
- As gas prices hit record highs during the third quarter of 2005 — reaching an unprecedented $3.05 in California on Sept. 9 — Americans jumped on public transit, 3.3 percent more than they did the year before, according to the American Public Transportation Association.
APTA’s report also found a decline — albeit a small one — in how much people used their cars during that period, reporting a 0.2 percent decrease in miles traveled and the amount of times Americans parked their cars.
Every year we hear about studies like this. This 2002 article from Brookings’ Anthony Downs looks at a different study from a few years back:
- A new day has dawned in American travel: Transit is gaining sway over highway travel.
That's what some public transit advocates have been claiming, based on a Surface Transportation Policy Project report in December 2000 that showed public transit boardings rose 4.8 percent in 1999 while vehicle miles of driving rose only 2.1 percent. Then, after reporting last November that there were larger percentage increases in transit usage than highway travel in 2000 and 2001, STPP said, "No precedent exists for this massive shift in travel behavior."
A less partisan view shows these claims are exaggerated.
Downs gives two background facts:
- First, a significant percentage of all public transit travel occurs in the New York City area and on its MTA, which accounts for 20 percent of all U.S. transit passenger miles and more than 27 percent of all unlinked passenger trips. So, although about 5 percent of all commuting is done by public transit, that fraction is only 2.2 percent outside New York.
Second, the absolute amount of total travel in private automobiles dwarfs public transit's totals: In 2000, transit provided about 46.6 billion miles of movement while passenger miles traveled in the same year on highways totaled about 4 trillion—2.5 trillion in cars and another 1.5 trillion in small trucks and SUVs. That's 86 times greater than passenger miles on transit. In fact, transit's share of all passenger miles traveled in the U.S. from 1985 through 2000 averaged only 1.26 percent.
Consequently, even very small percentage gains in highway travel involve vastly larger absolute increases in miles traveled than much larger percentage gains in transit travel. In 1999, a year about which STPP said that "growth in public transit exceeds growth in driving," total transit travel grew by about 1.7 billion passenger miles. But growth in car passenger miles was at least 51 billion miles and that in small private vehicles (excluding motorcycles and buses) was at least 80 billion miles. (These totals may be low because I adjusted the official data downward to reflect STPP's estimates of percentage gains.) Thus, the annual increases in highway passenger miles traveled in 1999 exceeded those in transit passenger miles by ratios of either 31 or 48 to 1. That hardly indicates that growth in transit was exceeding growth in driving.
True, transit usage has had a notable recent growth spurt. Between 1985 and 1995, transit usage declined in every year but 1989, falling overall from 8.6 billion trips to 7.8 billion, or by 10 percent. Then in 1996, transit usage began rising, reaching 9.3 billion trips in 2000—a gain of 20 percent over 1995. But driving travel was also increasing in that period. Although auto gains were smaller in percentage terms--11.9 percent--they were massively larger than transit gains in absolute terms: 425 billion passenger miles versus 9 billion. Thus, even during this period of transit's resurgence, 98 percent of the increase in total passenger miles traveled occurred on highways.
Transit advocates may hope that if transit continues to grow faster than highway travel in percentage terms, transit may eventually attain a much greater share of total passenger miles. But transit has two handicaps in this "race." It starts with a very low share—1.15 percent in 2000—and total passenger travel on highways is rising all the time.
A simple simulation model shows that if both types of travel start with their 2000 absolute levels, and transit usage increases 5.36 percent per year (its highest recent annual rate of gain) and highway travel gains only 1 percent per year, then the share of transit in total ground passenger miles would not reach 5 percent until 2036. Even if highway driving did not rise at all while transit did, transit would not reach 5 percent of all ground passenger miles until 2029. If transit usage rises at its actual compound annual growth rate from 1995 to 2000 (3.74 percent) and highway travel rises at its similar rate (2.27 percent), transit would not reach a 5 percent share until the next century.
Another bit of perspective on the ongoing transit revival: Telecommuters outnumber transit commuters in 27 of the top 50 metro areas, and that's with roughly zero public dollars going to telecommuting.
Posted by tedb at February 27, 2006 06:21 PM
My life's been basically bland today. More or less nothing seems worth thinking about. My mind is like an empty room. I've more or less been doing nothing to speak of. Not much on my mind recently.
Comment by: Sten60065 at January 26, 2007 07:52 AM
---
I haven't been up to much lately. I've basically been doing nothing , but it's not important. I can't be bothered with anything recently. I've just been letting everything happen without me lately.
Comment by: Sten83233 at January 27, 2007 06:35 AM
---
I haven't gotten anything done today. I feel like a fog, but what can I say? I've just been letting everything wash over me lately, not that it matters. Shrug.
Comment by: Sten85275 at January 27, 2007 09:05 PM
---
I feel like a complete blank, but I don't care. Pfft. I've pretty much been doing nothing worth mentioning.
Comment by: Sten94573 at January 28, 2007 06:34 PM
---
I haven't been up to much today. I've just been letting everything happen without me. Basically nothing seems worth bothering with. I've just been hanging out doing nothing. I just don't have anything to say right now. More or less nothing happening.
Comment by: Sten97835 at January 29, 2007 02:19 AM
---
Not much on my mind lately. My life's been completely boring these days. I've just been hanging out not getting anything done. So it goes.
Comment by: Sten22083 at January 29, 2007 05:10 AM
---
I just don't have anything to say , but shrug. So it goes. Not much on my mind recently. I can't be bothered with anything recently.
Comment by: Sten24769 at January 29, 2007 04:08 PM
---
My life's been basically bland today. More or less nothing seems worth thinking about. My mind is like an empty room. I've more or less been doing nothing to speak of. Not much on my mind recently.
Comment by: Sten80150 at January 29, 2007 06:43 PM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
pussy sex wet
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: PinkPantie at January 30, 2007 12:14 AM
---
I've just been staying at home waiting for something to happen, but I don't care. Basically nothing seems worth thinking about. I can't be bothered with anything recently.
Comment by: Sten84993 at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
---
I haven't gotten anything done today. I feel like a fog, but what can I say? I've just been letting everything wash over me lately, not that it matters. Shrug.
Comment by: Sten61663 at January 30, 2007 07:43 AM
---
I just don't have anything to say right now. I haven't been up to anything recently, but it's not important. I've just been sitting around waiting for something to happen, but shrug.
Comment by: Sten51327 at January 30, 2007 05:42 PM
---
My life's been basically bland today. More or less nothing seems worth thinking about. My mind is like an empty room. I've more or less been doing nothing to speak of. Not much on my mind recently.
Comment by: Sten23946 at January 31, 2007 03:52 AM
---
I haven't been up to much today. I've just been letting everything happen without me. Basically nothing seems worth bothering with. I've just been hanging out doing nothing. I just don't have anything to say right now. More or less nothing happening.
Comment by: Sten98528 at February 1, 2007 12:19 AM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
[url=http://moviesofsex.info]free video porno bear[/url]
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: DoctorLivs at February 1, 2007 03:36 PM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
[url=http://moviesofsex.info]free webcam porno[/url]
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: DoctorLivs at February 1, 2007 08:45 PM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
[url=http://moviesofsex.info]free webcam porno[/url]
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: DoctorLivs at February 1, 2007 08:46 PM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
[url=http://moviesofsex.info]free webcam porno[/url]
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: DoctorLivs at February 1, 2007 08:46 PM
---
Amazing from Adult Tuba
Ok guys, here i am - pretty brunette with brown eyes, tight ass and quite big tits (as my BF says). The reason i post here is that my BF is actually in a 2 week trip, and it's quite boring and lonely here, and i simply want to have fun!
I want to share with you mine and my BF some sexual content photos:
[url=http://moviesofsex.info]free webcam porno[/url]
By the way, if you have anything to share too - post it here, i'd like to see them too! ;-)
So, guys and ladies, don't be shy - post it!
I'm sure all of you have smth to show!
Comment by: DoctorLivs at February 1, 2007 08:47 PM
---
I've just been hanging out not getting anything done. What can I say? I've basically been doing nothing worth mentioning, but pfft. Not that it matters. Pretty much nothing exciting happening to speak of. I haven't been up to much these days.
Comment by: Sten36294 at February 2, 2007 03:43 AM
---
I just don't have much to say these days, but so it goes. Today was a total loss. I guess it doesn't bother me.
Comment by: Sten26900 at February 2, 2007 12:07 PM
---
I haven't been up to anything today. I don't care. I've just been staying at home not getting anything done. Basically not much happening right now. Maybe tomorrow. I guess it doesn't bother me.
Comment by: Sten66784 at February 2, 2007 02:48 PM
---
I've just been hanging out not getting anything done. What can I say? I've basically been doing nothing worth mentioning, but pfft. Not that it matters. Pretty much nothing exciting happening to speak of. I haven't been up to much these days.
Comment by: Sten69714 at February 3, 2007 12:27 AM
---
I haven't been up to anything today. I can't be bothered with anything recently. Nothing seems worth thinking about. I haven't gotten anything done recently, but oh well. Not much noteworthy going on worth mentioning.
Comment by: Sten42445 at February 3, 2007 07:34 AM
---
retty much nothing seems worth thinking about. My life's been completely dull , not that it matters. I've just been staying at home waiting for something to happen.
Comment by: Sten67598 at February 3, 2007 09:38 PM
---
I've just been staying at home not getting anything done. I've basically been doing nothing worth mentioning. My life's been pretty unremarkable these days. Eh.
Comment by: Sten58391 at February 4, 2007 04:48 PM
---
I just don't have anything to say right now. I haven't been up to anything recently, but it's not important. I've just been sitting around waiting for something to happen, but shrug.
Comment by: Sten72919 at February 6, 2007 03:28 AM
---
I can't be bothered with anything these days, but such is life. I don't care. So it goes. More or less nothing seems worth thinking about. I've just been hanging out waiting for something to happen, but that's how it is.
Comment by: Sten87801 at February 6, 2007 07:57 AM
---
Comments