June 30, 2004

Even the French Are Doing It

The French parliament has given preliminary approval to a bill allowing the partial privatization of state-owned power companies, despite weeks of protests by utility workers.

Tuesday's vote is the first of two necessary for final approval of the measure. The European Union requires France to open its utilities to privatization, but many workers are against it because they fear losing their jobs or retirement benefits.

Under the plan, France will maintain ownership of 70 percent of the utilities.

Its a start.

Posted by geoffs at 05:48 PM

Talk to me in 40 years

The funny thing about light rail is that, from a distance, it can look like a stunning success. After all, about two-dozen cities have it, and most of those cities have plans for more lines. No wonder cities without rail point to such rapid growth as proof of success. These cities are now lining up to get their share of federal dough to build their own rail systems.

But it’s not enough to say “everyone else is doing it, so we should, too.” Looking closely you find that even in the face of failure, light rail is still able to expand. Santa Clara County in California is an interesting case in point. From the Mercury News (sorry, no link):

Studies have shown that light rail in Santa Clara County costs more and is among the slowest of any comparable system in the country. Still, millions are being invested in a line to Campbell that will open in 2006, and studies are under way to extend trains to Eastridge Shopping Center and down Capitol Expressway to Highway 87.

Future lines could be scratched if riders don't flock to the line about to open, making this a possible litmus test for light rail

The response from a transit official isn’t exactly comforting:

``Other system have been built out over decades, 50 to 60 years,'' [Chief Construction Officer Jack] Collins said. ``We still have a long way to go. The city needs to mature. Land-use changes take time to occur and there's still very low density throughout the valley.

``When you compare San Jose to cities like Boston and Philadelphia,
they have density that is a lot higher. That is where your ridership
comes from -- people living close to transit. Come back in 40 years
and then maybe we can write a story on what success there has been.''

In other words Santa Clara residents should just trust their planners and sit tight for another 40 years or so. I wonder what public support would have been if, from the beginning, people were told this sort of plan might take a half-century to “mature.”

Posted by tedb at 10:35 AM

States Continue to Tap Private Prisons

Given continued budget crunches and growing inmate populations prison privatization remains attractive to governments at every level.

A few recent developments include Kentucky where state officials are seeking to outsource the management of a new state facility. And South Carolina where officials are considering privatizing inmate health care.

The National Association of Counties has put together a panel on the topic at their national convention in two weeks. Additionally, Rep. Hall in Texas is working on new legislation that will target non-custodial services for outsourcing.

See Reason's work on corrections privatization here.

Posted by geoffs at 06:29 AM

June 29, 2004

Federal Unions Back Kerry

I know you're as shocked and appalled as I am that federal employee unions are officially backing Kerry for President.

American Federation of Government Employees President John Gage said, "as the current administration has pursued its scorched-earth policy against federal workers and middle-class Americans, Sen. Kerry has stood against the wholesale dismantling of the federal government through contracting out and underfunding."

Posted by geoffs at 11:12 AM

June 27, 2004

Gov. Rendell, Strategic Sourcing Show Promise

Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell has created an ambitious new program for procuring the goods and services the state needs. "Strategic Sourcing" is similar to how many American families shop today - we go to Costco or WalMart and buy in bulk, utilizing purchasing power to get the best deal.

To date, the Governor's office estimates that its saved over $72 million through strategic sourcing.

Rendell and his team should be heralded for this effort. However, as Matt Brouillette at the Commonwealth Foundation is quick to point out this effort is not privatization and will not necessarily slow the growth of government.

Regardless, the program holds much promise and serves as a model for procurement reform.

Rendell does have a history of privatization while he was mayor of Philadelphia.

Posted by geoffs at 07:33 PM

June 25, 2004

Airports Can Go Private Soon

The Bush administration told Congress yesterday that airports that want to replace government security screeners with privately employed workers may do so by early next summer. Rep. John Mica agrees and has suggested that its time to rethink the TSA.

This is good news to the world's busiest airport, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International. A report out Friday says the airport is considering a return to private security screeners. Twice this year, long lines have extended out the doors at the airport sparking much criticism.

Again, Reason's own Bob Poole has a great pool of research on the issue here.

Posted by geoffs at 09:08 AM

June 24, 2004

FAA Needs Controllers

The Federal Aviation Administration announced that it faces a major personnel crisis, estimating that nearly half of the air traffic controllers will retire by 2012. Lawmakers think the problem is actually worse than this!

What's the solution? The FAA believes that it needs to start hiring now. Granted the training process could take up to seven years (generally between 1 and 2 years) for new hires. Just last year lawmakers considered opening up some air traffic controller and specialist positions to competition - allowing private firms handle operations would help ease the staffing crunch, provide more flexibility within the FAA and save valuable tax dollars. Its worth noting that private controllers have better safety records and already operate at numerous airports around the country - including Crawford, TX where the President's plane lands.

However, NACTA and NAATS (the unions representing controllers and specialists) fought competition hard. NAATS even hired a powerful lobbyist, with good connections I might add, to fight competition in the future.

Reason's own Bob Poole has written countless articles on the topic, you can access the entire body of work here. Bob tells me that there are signs of more competition to come. Given the human capital shortage, competition is just what the FAA needs.

Posted by geoffs at 06:57 AM

June 23, 2004

Not Every 'Bush' Grows

Despite his brothers mixed pedigree on the growth of government, Florida Governor Jeb Bush is dedicated to shrinking the size and reach of government. In five years, the total number of authorized positions in all of state government - including the courts, lottery, the National Guard and elected or appointed officials - has fallen by 3,795 since Bush took office.

But without gains in the universities and courts, caused by higher enrollment and work loads, the falloff would have been about 6,000 greater.

Bush isn't stopping there though. He continues to look at other outsourcing opportunties. He's so serious about making government work better he created the Center for Efficient Government, that will identify new outsourcing opportunities for the Governor to undertake in the remaining years of his administration.

Posted by geoffs at 08:45 AM

June 22, 2004

Makin’ history

Private space travel has arrived:

A rocket powered by a mixture of rubber and laughing gas soared 328,491 feet Monday to become the first privately funded vehicle to carry a person into space.

Piloted by 63-year-old Michael W. Melvill, SpaceShipOne climbed into the record books by rising to new heights.

With the suborbital flight that included 3 1/2 minutes of weightlessness, Melvill became the first human being to reach space — defined as about 62 miles above Earth — without any government funding or help, a feat that space enthusiasts said could usher in a new age of commercial space travel.

Posted by tedb at 05:24 PM

June 18, 2004

Cool hunting hits Cleveland

Peter Gordon points to this:

“As college students and recent graduates ponder what to do next, a range of midsize and smaller cities -- and even some larger ones -- are launching new programs designed to lure them there ... Cleveland's program, which started last year, now offers 55 interns 10 weeks of living, working and schmoozing with civic leaders ... Other cities are looking into everything from building museums and art spaces to encouraging the development of loft apartments ... Michigan has even embarked on a statewide 'Cool Cities' initiative that hopes to remake overlooked communities into hip neighborhoods ..."

Gordon’s take:

Very cool ... and much less boring than lowering taxes, cutting regulation, politics and bureaucracy (including the economic development staff), improving schools by offering choice to parents, etc.

Also see Michigan’s effort to make manufacturing cool a legitimate government function.

Posted by tedb at 09:32 AM

Private busing hinders learning?

Those of you who think that who drives kids to school or who fixes them their lunch doesn't affect how well they learn the three Rs are wrong, according to a union rep:

From busing children to school to making their lunchtime meals, private companies are increasingly performing work traditionally done by school district employees, a National Education Association official said in Cheyenne on Wednesday.

If not reversed, that trend has the potential to seriously damage the country's public education system, said NEA Secretary-Treasurer Lily Eskelsen.

"We think there are certain things that are public services that shouldn't be at the mercy of CEO stock options," Eskelsen said.

If private provision of non-core duties makes it harder for kids to learn their ABCs, maybe we should re-examine schools’ practice of using private sector paper and pencils. Perhaps it would be best to form a “pencil providers” division within the NEA, after all, we shouldn’t let those fat cat pencil CEOs put their profits before our children.

Posted by tedb at 09:22 AM

June 17, 2004

Not so red and blue after all

Pundits have been talking up how divided America is. Blue-staters apparently don’t want to hear anything from red-staters and vice versa. Are politics ripping us apart?

Julian Sanchez points to this John Tierney article, which argues that we’re not as split as the talking head shows would have you believe:

Majorities in both [red and blue states] support stricter gun control as well as the death penalty; they strongly oppose giving blacks preference in hiring while also wanting the government to guarantee that blacks are treated fairly by employers. They're against outlawing abortion completely or allowing it under any circumstances, and their opinions on abortion have been fairly stable for three decades. Virtually identical majorities of Blues and Reds don't want a single party controlling the White House and Congress.

Tierney notes that the six bluest states (where Bush fared the worst) all have Republican governors, and even California elected a Republican governor.

Why does the debate seem so stratified?

[One] reason is gerrymandering, which has created so many safe seats that the only threat to incumbents comes from within the party, forcing them to appeal to the partisan voters who dominate primaries.

As moderates have become an endangered species in Congress and in state legislatures, the parties' ideological divisions have deepened, and voters have realigned in response. Many moderate liberals who used to call themselves Republicans no longer do, while many moderate conservatives have left the Democratic Party.

The result is greater partisanship, because each party is purer ideologically. But does that mean that voters as a whole are polarized as well?

But even if we do agree on more things than we thought we did, that’s not always a good thing. After all, both parties are growing more comfortable with putting more duties in government hands.

Others have documented how members of Congress grow friendlier to higher spending the longer they remain in office. Maybe this is evidence of our elected officials coming together, but it’s tough to cheer for such coalition building.

Posted by tedb at 02:24 PM

June 16, 2004

Falling away from rail

Light rail has a knack for sprouting new lines even though such projects are hugely expensive. Now it seems like a mini-counter trend is emerging. Louisville recently ditched its light rail plans, and now Cincinnati follows suit:

Light rail is no longer a priority of Greater Cincinnati transportation planners because money can't be found to pay the estimated $2.6 billion such a rapid transit system would cost.

Looks like these cities will be spared all the cost escalations that typically accompany light rail, as well as the fuzzy logic in which project costs can increase nearly 80 percent and still be "on budget".

From Minneapolis (registration required):

In 1997, the project was approved at $400 million, but has since grown to $715 million. But officials say that expansion came from inflation, project changes and added features, not overspending.

With a season of construction remaining on the south end of the line, project chief of staff Mark Fuhrmann says all major hurdles are in the past. He's confident the full line will open in December on budget.

Posted by tedb at 10:08 AM

June 15, 2004

Wal-Mart at the trough

A study from Good Jobs First claims that Wal-Mart has benefited from $1billion in government subsidies. The study found more than 240 cases where public resources assisted the construction of Bentonville Boxes.

It’s clear that the study’s authors don’t care for much of anything that Wal-Mart does, but it is a good reminder that just about any business will look to game the system. Part of the problem is the law’s refusal to remain neutral on such matters. A local government that bans Wal-Mart one day, will grant special favors to another business another day. Indeed, local governments that now scorn big box retailers have also invoked eminent domain to clear the way for them.

Seems like some people are “pro” Wal-Mart, and some are “anti,” but very few are pro neutrality.

For a bit more on this, go here.

Posted by tedb at 09:54 AM

June 14, 2004

Legislating cool

When we stop to consider who might be the coolest among us, it’s unlikely that many would point to politicians. All the more reason to be suspicious of those who have decided they can legislate cool:

A revamped vendor shed at Detroit’s Eastern Market, a gay and lesbian community center in Ferndale, and a downtown fountain and ice rink in Warren are among 20 projects in 17 cities deemed cool enough to get up to $100,000 each under a new state grant program, Gov. Jennifer Granholm announced Wednesday.

These so-called “cool cities” pilot projects also will be first in line, eventually, to draw from another $100 million in grants, loans and other state resources, said the governor, who made the announcement surrounded by crates of fruit and vegetables and flats of petunias at Detroit’s Eastern Market.

“These projects have priority status,” Granholm said. “They’re destined to attract a work force for the 21st century.

“There’s no reason the city of Detroit can’t be like Chicago.”

The idea behind Granholm’s cool cities initiative is to draw and retain the young, creative professionals who according to census figures have been migrating to other states in droves. They embody the kind of cutting-edge business and artistic talent the state covets.

But critics question whether a handful of grants for art galleries, outdoor markets and loft housing really can turn around cities such as Detroit and Flint, which are beset by profound social and economic problems.

“The small grant is a negligible inducement,” said Michael LaFaive, director of fiscal policy at the Midland-based Mackinac Center for Public Policy Research, a free-market think tank. “And the hip artists and creative young people they hope to draw are not going to make investments on the mere promise of extra goodies.”

It’s sad to watch politicians fall in love with gimmicks, and neglect the bread-and-butter issues. Take a place like Detroit. Politicians can subsidize poetry readings all they want, but if the schools are bad and the streets are dangerous, it’ll be tough to attract people back to the central city.

In Los Angeles, young families—many of which are probably cool—search for houses outside the reach of the LA Unified School District.

None of this is surprising. It’s the habit of government to fail at its original mandate and then take on new duties.

For more on legislating cool see here and here.

Also, be on the lookout for the latest Privatization Watch, which tackles this very issue.

Posted by tedb at 04:23 PM

June 11, 2004

Clean Sweep

In Portland, Oregon the company that replaced 300 custodians with contract
workers has saved the Portland Public Schools nearly $11 million in two
years.

Posted by Lisa Snell at 02:03 PM

Jobs going to India … or Indiana?

The bulk of outsourced jobs never leave U.S. shores, the government said on Thursday in a new report suggesting concerns over American workers losing jobs to cheaper foreign labor may be exaggerated.

Nine percent of non-seasonal U.S. layoffs in the first quarter were due to outsourcing, but less than a third of the work was sent overseas, the U.S. Labor Department said in releasing new figures on mass layoffs and outsourcing.

"In more than seven out of 10 cases, the work activities were reassigned to places elsewhere in the U.S.," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report on mass layoffs for the January-to-March period.

(Read on here.)

OK, at least we know what the real problem is--interstate outsourcing. Maybe we should lay off the Indians for a while and concentrate on all those other job-stealing states right here in America. Of course, then some might get upset with intercity outsourcing.

Some may say that it’s OK if an American “steals” another American’s job because at least his taxes will go to the same big pot in D.C. But it seems like someone who just lost his job might not be so optimistic. After all, if you’re job’s gone, it’s gone—whether it moves across town, across the nation or across the world.

Posted by tedb at 08:33 AM

June 10, 2004

Worried about outsourcing?

Might want to fix this first:

High school graduation tests in Florida and five other states are not "overly demanding" and measure only a small part of the skills considered essential by colleges and employers, concluded a report released Wednesday.

For instance, the math portion of the tests includes material generally taught, internationally, in the eighth grade …

If companies looking for skilled labor can’t find it here, they will look overseas.

For more on the outsourcing-education link, see this post.

Posted by tedb at 09:31 AM

How would you spend $50B?

Stop thinking about yachts and prime rib binges. What if you had to decide how to spend all that dough to help developing nations?

The Copenhagen Consensus project has posed that question to an expert panel of eight, including three Nobel Prize winners (including PW contributor Vernon Smith, see page 2).

What was at the top of the list? Fighting AIDS in Africa. Fighting global warming was at the bottom. Read the full story here.

This exercise in prioritization doesn’t seem to have much shot of being codified into law. Still, it’s the kind of practice we would hope politicos at all levels would consider.

For example, it would seem that even conservative law-and-order types would be swayed by the argument that—since we have a finite amount of cops, prison cells, etc—let’s catch all the murders and rapists before we waste time with drug users.

And there’s certainly room for improvement. The FBI reports that in about 53 percent of violent crimes, no one is arrested let alone convicted. The figures are much worse for property crime.

A government that concerns itself with almost everything will do almost nothing right.

Posted by tedb at 09:12 AM

June 09, 2004

Paris may ban SUVs

From Reuters:

Bulky four-by-fours could be banned from clogging up the chic streets of Paris after a top official in the capital's left-wing government described them as a polluting "caricature of a car" unsuited to city life.

An anti-sports utility vehicle (SUV) resolution passed by the city council could lead to a ban on the popular vehicles in about 18 months if it is included in an overall project to improve traffic flow in the city, Deputy Mayor Denis Baupin said Wednesday.

If Paris does ban SUVs it will be interesting to see how the ban is enforced. For example, it seems like the Ford Expedition would be an easy ban, but what about the Ford Escape? What about the hybrid Escape, which will be available in a couple of months? What about the car-based crossovers like the RAV 4, which can get over 30 mpg? If it’s car-based is it still a "caricature of a car"?

This isn’t just nitpicking. Car-based SUV are quickly becoming more popular than their hulkish predecessors, and the ongoing SUV evolution will complicate things for those whose hair stands on end at the mention of those three letters.

Posted by tedb at 01:20 PM

Tougher drunk driving laws flop down under

After six years of tougher drunk driving laws in Australia, a new study says the rate of alcohol-related car accidents has not changed:

The study looked at two groups of people convicted for drink-driving in NSW either side of the law's introduction - one during 1997 and the other during 1999.
Each group was tracked for at least three years to measure the proportion of those who reoffended and the length of time they took to do so.

In Sydney, there was no change in the proportion of people reoffending or the length of time they took to reoffend. In country areas there was a 3 per cent reduction in the proportion of people reoffending, while those who reoffended took slightly longer to reoffend.

Dr Weatherburn said a public perception that there was only a small chance of getting caught drink driving was probably a reason the laws had failed to make an impact.

Then again, the laws did result in a 47 percent increase in the average fine, which for many politicians in the States, would be solid evidence of success. The line between public safety and revenue generation gets blurrier all the time.

Posted by tedb at 09:33 AM

June 08, 2004

Good news—no wait, scratch that.

Every once in a while something unexpected happens, and a public official bravely stands in front of hysteria’s stampede:

St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly on Wednesday came out against a proposed ban on smoking in bars and restaurants as the City Council delayed voting on the contentious measure for at least a week.

Kelly is working with council members, ban supporters and business owners to craft a compromise that would fall short of prohibiting smoking entirely, said Deputy Mayor Dennis Flaherty.

OK, well, that doesn’t sound so great, but at least it’s better than a ban.

"He continues to be very concerned about the impact of a ban on our hospitality industry," Flaherty said. "He feels that the overall solution to this is a statewide ban, which wouldn't place our businesses at a disadvantage."

Spoke too soon.

For news on NYC’s smoking ban, go here.

Posted by tedb at 04:56 PM

Reagan the Privatizer?

Few people understand what Reagan did (and did not) contribute to privatization like Reason’s Bob Poole. He shares his insider’s view here:

Ronald Reagan was a great president. He stood up for the ideas of limited government, free trade and free-markets, and the roll-back of communism. Reagan is often associated with the global privatization revolution that took off during the 1980s, but that is largely a misconception.

Posted by tedb at 10:20 AM

June 07, 2004

"I don’t believe in a government that protects us from ourselves."

From a 1975 Reason interview with Ronald Reagan.

And from the WSJ (registration required):

When Mr. Reagan took office, the top marginal U.S. tax rate was 70%. When he left the top rate was 28%; it is now 35%, and even John Kerry has conceded with his proposal to cut some corporate taxes that the marginal rate of tax matters. Today Americans may disagree about what tax cuts are needed, how deep they should go, and what they ought to target. But the debate itself reflects Mr. Reagan's central premise: that people respond to incentives, and that high taxes interfere with natural human creativity and drive.

Meanwhile, Jesse Walker gives Reagan mixed marks.

Posted by tedb at 01:51 PM

June 06, 2004

Remembering Reagan and Privatization

There are a lot of reasons to remember Ronald Reagan. For me there is a very personal element, as 1980 was the year I turned 18 and first got involved in polictics and policy, and the Reagan revolution was very exciting for me in those days.

A lot has changed since then in my perspective on Reagan as President. But among his accomplishments was making privatization much more a part of federal policy. My colleage, Bob Poole, was deeply involved in Reagan's privatization efforts, advising the White House Office of Policy Development on privatization later working with the President's Commission on Privatization.

Reagan's effort to make privatizaiton a viable federal policy tool paid off during his administration with the privatization of Conrail, and the beginnings of privatization that Reagan created led to the major efforts of the past few decades. After Conrail came the Elk Hills Petroleum Reserve, the Alaska Power Administration, and others.

No President since has done as much to get commercial assets out of government and into the private sector where they belong.

Posted by adrianm at 10:52 AM

Workforce shortage and offshoring

A report released last week in Michigan looks at the manufacturing workforce and offshore outsourcing and concludes that people are paying attention to the wrong problem.

Key points of "Impact of Offshore Outsourcing on the Manufacturing Sector in Michigan and the United States" include:

* Increased manufacturing productivity plays a far greater role in job
losses than offshore outsourcing. Only 12% of lost jobs -- 1 in 8 -- is due to trade, which includes both job displacement from imports and offshore outsourcing.

* A worker shortage is looming. We need to focus on improving the business climate and increase foreign direct investment ("insourcing").

Posted by adrianm at 09:45 AM

June 04, 2004

Do seat belt laws safe lives?

With the “Click It or Ticket” campaign winding down, this seems like a question worth considering.

After noodling with the numbers a bit more, some interesting things emerge. While overall, states with tougher seatbelt laws seem to have somewhat lower highway fatality rates, this is not the case with the safest states.

Here are the five safest states, and their fatality rates (motor vehicle deaths per 100M vehicle miles traveled):

1. Vermont: 0.81
2. Massachusetts: 0.86
3. New Hampshire: 1.01
4. Connecticut: 1.03
4. (tie) Rhode Island: 1.03

Of the five safest states, only one (CT) has a primary seat belt law, and NH is the third safest state even though it is also the only state without any seat belt law. (MA and NH also have the lowest seat belt use rates in the nation.)

Of the ten safest states, five have primary enforcement laws, and five do not.
And even though Puerto Rico has a primary enforcement law and the second highest rate of seat belt use (91 percent), it has the highest fatality rate.

Clearly, there’s a lot more to safer streets than tougher seat belt laws.

Posted by tedb at 11:10 AM

The other side of outsourcing

If you don’t mind Thomas Friedman’s habit of quoting himself, check out this interesting Discovery Channel program that examines how outsourcing has affected India.

Posted by tedb at 10:37 AM

June 03, 2004

No smoking inside, too much noise outside, now what?

New York banned smoking in bars and restaurants, but somehow that didn’t stop smoking. Smokers are now more inclined to light up outside, and that has residents complaining about noise.

Here’s the president of the New York Nightlife Association:

[T]here is nothing we bar owners can do under the current law, except put our smokers out in the street and hope not to stir up justifiable community resentment and even noise tickets, or let them smoke inside and risk summonses that could put us out of business.

All our residential neighbors want is a good night's sleep. It's hard to fault them for not seeing the future and the multiplier effect on the city economy if restaurants and bars are phased out of many neighborhoods.

The only real answer is to get the smokers back inside the bars, where they belong.

And it seems that NIMBYism can strike even in the East Village, where, among all the piercings and tattoos, residents are threatening to sue the State Liquor Authority to stop the granting of new licenses. Visit NYC now, before all the fun is sucked out.

Posted by tedb at 11:30 AM

Hating cars

For a good example of the sneering disgust some have for cars, particularly big cars, check out this LA Times commentary, which begins by noting that Hummer’s sales are slipping and hybrid sales are rising:

Certainly, the fact that Prius sales are soaring and buyers are lining up suggests a change. Could this status slump compel shamed Hummer owners to hide their vehicles in the three-car garages of their McMansions?

In 1908, when Henry Ford's Model T became the "machine for the masses," prophets saw it as a tool to improve the nation, offer freedom to the farmer "stuck in the mud" and provide a better life to citizens suffering the waste and pollution of horse transportation. Unyoked by this new freedom, they would command their lives and landscape.

In time, however, the gains became losses; the car-as-tool was transformed into the car-as-trap. Advancing sprawl, squeezing pedestrian space, stripping streets of rails and funds for public transportation — thereby depriving the old, the young and the poor of mobility, access and amenities — the so-called vehicle of choice throttles our lives.

Car-as-trap? At typical speeds, driving a car lets you access 700 square miles in 30 minutes, while transit allows you only 175. That means greater access to jobs, education—anything. Some trap.

Worldwide, mobility improvements lead to improvements in standards of living, and welfare advocates have long noted that access to a car is crucial to moving the poor up the economic ladder.

And advancing sprawl? You mean the five percent of America that’s developed? Improvements in agriculture allow us to do more with less land, which means that millions of acres that used to be farmland are forests again.

The author goes on to cite pollution problems, even though the EPA notes that during recent decades vehicle miles traveled have increased about 155 percent, while pollution has decreased by about 50 percent. Yes, we’re driving more, but our cars are getting cleaner and cleaner.

And the slipping Hummer is part of a larger trend. Ford discontinued its largest SUV (the Excursion) and will release the first SUV hybrid in a few months. The entire SUV market is experiencing a rather profound shift toward smaller, car-based models.

What will happen as driving increases, but fuel efficiency and air quality continue to improve? That certainly complicates the worldview that places auto use at odds with environmental improvement.

It’ll be interesting to note who stands up to note the progress we’ve made and who continues to ignore it. That will help separate the environmentalists from those who are simply disgusted by cars.

Posted by tedb at 09:42 AM

June 02, 2004

Seat belt laws save lives … Are you sure?

Today, seat belt use in the U.S. stands at about 80 percent, and primary law states (where drivers can get pulled over simply for not wearing a seat belt), tend to have somewhat higher rates of seat belt use. So, case closed, seat belt laws save lives. Not so fast.

It’s interesting to compare, for example, the state with the highest seat belt use (Washington), to the state with the lowest seat belt use (New Hampshire). Washington is a primary law state, while New Hampshire is the only state that has no seat belt law at all (most states have secondary laws). While both states have motor vehicle fatality rates below the national average, New Hampshire’s rate (1.01 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled) is actually much lower than Washington’s (1.20).

Now, of course, this compares only two states, but it does show the importance of keeping your eye on the ball. We don’t want higher seat belt use as an end in itself, fewer deaths is what we’re after (and I prefer to slice it finer still, placing the deaths of innocents atop the priorities list).

Posted by tedb at 11:24 AM

Trusting technology, trusting people

A reader points to a very interesting article about America and highway safety. It tells the tale of Ralph Nader precursor, William Haddon, and his belief in the passive approach to safety:

The orthodoxy of [the 1950s] held that safety was about reducing accidents--educating drivers, training them, making them slow down. To Haddon, this approach made no sense. His goal was to reduce the injuries that accidents caused. In particular, he did not believe in safety measures that depended on changing the behavior of the driver, since he considered the driver unreliable, hard to educate, and prone to error. Haddon believed the best safety measures were passive.

Haddon wanted changes in auto design such as steering columns that—instead of impaling the driver—collapse inward on impact:

There is no question that the improvements in auto design which Haddon and his disciples pushed for saved countless lives. They changed the way cars were built, and put safety on the national agenda. What they did not do, however, is make American highways the safest in the world. In fact--and this is the puzzling thing about the Haddon crusade--the opposite happened. United States auto-fatality rates were the lowest in the world before Haddon came along. But, since the late nineteen-seventies, just as the original set of N.H.T.S.A. safety standards were having their biggest impact, America's safety record has fallen to eleventh place.

But the passive approach has strong intuitive appeal. After all, if you’re interested in preventing typhoid, it’s easier to put chlorine in the water than to convince people to boil their water. But even pithy analogies have their limitations, and in this case it’s straightforward: There isn’t any chlorine for traffic crashes.

The piece goes on to explain how other nations implemented mandatory seat belt laws, and the U.S. eventually started to do the same. Higher seat belt use followed the new laws. The piece explains how safety pushers like Nader hailed government regulations, but still remained puzzled about some things:

He couldn't believe the strides that had been made against drunk driving. "You've got to hand it to MADD. It took me by surprise. The drunk-driving culture is deeply embedded. I thought it was too ingrained." And then there was what had happened with seat belts. "Use rates are up sharply," he said. "They're a lot higher than I thought they would be. I thought it would be very hard to hit fifty per cent. The most unlikely people now buckle up." He shook his head, marvelling. He had always been a belt user, and recommends belts to others, but who knew they would catch on?

Other safety activists, who had seen what had happened to driver behavior in Europe and Australia in the seventies, weren't so surprised, of course. But Nader was never the kind of activist who had great faith in the people whose lives he was trying to protect. He and the other Haddonites were sworn to a theory that said that the way to prevent typhoid is to chlorinate the water, even though there are clearly instances where chlorine will not do the trick. This is the blindness of ideology. It is what happens when public policy is conducted by those who cannot conceive that human beings will do willingly what is in their own interest.

Whether you regard it as noble or not, that paternalistic streak is common among safety pushers.

Posted by tedb at 11:10 AM

June 01, 2004

"Professional demeanor, attire and attitude gain respect"

So says David M. Adams, a spokesman for the Federal Air Marshal Service. Some are criticizing the official dress code which requires marshals to make the standard government fashion statement: jacket, tie, short hair, shined shoes. Today’s traveler is getting more and more casual in attire, which means that marshals stick out more and more. Case in point:

As they settled into first class on American Airlines Flight 1438 from Chicago to Miami, they were supposed to be the last line of defense against terrorists -- two highly trained U.S. air marshals who would sit unnoticed among the ordinary travelers but spring into action at the first sign of trouble.

Imagine their chagrin when a fellow passenger coming down the aisle suddenly boomed out, "Oh, I see we have air marshals on board!"

The incident, detailed in an intelligence brief, is an example of something that happens all too often, marshals say. The element of surprise may be crucial to their mission, but it turns out they're "as easy to identify as a uniformed police officer," the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association said in a complaint to Congress.

Still, Adams, the Marshal spokesman, defends the dress code: "If a guy pulls out a gun and he's got a tattoo on his arm and [is wearing] shorts, I'm going to question whether he's a law enforcement officer."

Sure, at some point someone who looks really outlandish might not command the same respect, but that doesn’t mean they all have to dress like Fox Mulder. Can we at least get these guys some polo shirts?

In other air safety news, what will become of the TSA?

The anti-terrorism agency that Congress rushed into existence just weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks to protect America's planes, trains and trucks is shrinking and could all but fade away.

The Transportation Security Administration, which hired some 65,000 employees and has spent more than $10 billion over 3 1/2 years, has been beset by complaints about its performance, leaving it vulnerable to congressional Republicans who want to reduce the size of government.

After the terrorist attacks, "people were panicked to put in place a massive bureaucracy," said House Aviation Subcommittee Chairman John Mica.

The Florida Republican says the time has come to rethink TSA and cut it back.

Also, check out Bob Poole on air safety.

Posted by tedb at 02:01 PM

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