How to Tackle Atlanta's Congestion
By Robert W. Poole, Jr.

Atlanta is already plagued by serious traffic congestion, whose direct cost is estimated at $1.75 billion per year. But if the current long-range transportation plan is implemented, by 2030 congestion will be much worse. A rush-hour trip that today takes 46 percent longer than at off-hours will take 67 percent longer in 2030.

In December 2005, the Governor’s Congestion Mitigation Task Force recommended a dramatic change in the focus of transportation planning, making congestion-reduction its principal focus. It set a goal of reducing Atlanta’s rush hour travel time from today’s 46 percent longer than at off-hours to 35 percent longer than at off-hours by 2030 (in sharp contrast to the current projected increase).

Our analysis concludes that Atlanta’s current approach of investing heavily in mass transit, carpooling, and land-use changes to reduce the extent of driving is not compatible with the congestion-reduction goal. The current long-range plan, despite devoting the majority of its funding to transit and carpool lanes, would lead to no increase in the fraction of commute trips made by carpool, and a less than two percentage point increase in transit’s market share—while overall congestion would soar.

The new approach we recommend deals with both major sources of congestion. For the half that is caused by incidents (accidents, work zones, weather, etc.), Atlanta should continue efforts under way, such as quicker identification of, response to, and clearance of incidents. On arterial streets, improvements in traffic signal coordination and access management will also help.

But for the other half of congestion—the kind that occurs every day during rush hours because demand greatly exceeds roadway capacity—there is no alternative to increasing the capacity of the roadway system. This does not mean paving over the landscape with ever more freeways, nor does it mean ignoring air quality mandates. Our modeling (using the Atlanta Regional Commission’s traffic model) shows that a careful program of catch-up capacity additions over the next 25 years can substantially reduce congestion (vehicle hours of travel) without increasing total driving (vehicle miles of travel). The result would be the elimination of the worst congestion by 2030, and achievement of the Congestion Reduction Task Force’s travel time goal.

Where might the new capacity go? We recommend four major projects, as follows:

• A network of express toll lanes added to the entire freeway system instead of the currently planned (but only partially funded) set of HOV lanes. These priced lanes would also function as the guideway for regionwide express bus service.
  
  
• A double-decked tunnel linking the southern terminus of Georgia 400 with I-20 and later with the northern terminus of I-675, providing major relief to the Downtown Connector (I-75/85)—the most congested portion of the freeway system.
  
  
• Extension of the Lakewood Freeway eastward to I-20 as a tunnel, and westward to I-20 as a freeway, providing an additional east-west corridor and new access to the airport.
  
  
• A separate toll truckway system, permitting heavy trucks to bypass Atlanta’s congestion in exchange for paying a toll; a portion of this system would be tunneled below downtown.

The estimated cost of these four mega-projects is $25.1 billion. By using value-priced tolling on nearly all of this new capacity, we estimate that more than 80 percent of the cost could be financed based on the projected toll revenues. And to reduce the risks inherent in such mega-projects, we recommend that they be carried out under long-term concession agreements in which the private-sector partners would bear the risks of cost overruns and revenue shortfalls. Projects of this scale are being done successfully under such arrangements in Europe and Australia.

Based on conservative estimates, the time savings over 20 years would be more than $98 billion—nearly four times the $25 billion cost. But there would also be major economic benefits. By allowing employers to recruit from a wider radius (and employees to seek jobs within a wider radius), better matches of skills with needs would occur, making Atlanta’s economy more productive.

Individual motorists would benefit every day, as average trip times would be shorter than today, rather than considerably longer. With a network of uncongested priced lanes on the whole freeway system, everyone who signed up for a windshield-mounted transponder would have the peace of mind of knowing that he or she had a time-saving option available whenever it was really important to get somewhere on time. And the region’s transit providers would gain the virtual equivalent of a network of exclusive busways, since the priced lanes would permit reliable, uncongested bus operations at all times.

Robert W. Poole, Jr. is Reason's director of transportation studies. He has advised the last four presidential administrations on transportation policy.

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